Yiming Wang

Date of Award



With the development of modern statistics, the completion of prediction models, and the long-lasting interest in predicting the future, the prediction market has become a significant investment opportunity. The results derived from prediction models today have a solid foundation in mathematics. In this paper, we derive and replicate some of the important models that have been introduced in the domain of the prediction market and the domain of modern statistics. We utilized two models, one is the sports betting prediction market, and the other is the Elo rating system. The main objectives of this study are to first use the models to predict the win or loss of a certain game, and further, include the spread in the sports betting market to formulate a consistent investment strategy that is able to generate profits. In this thesis proejct, my teammates mainly focus on model 1 and I mainly focus on model 2.

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