Date of Submission

Spring 2024

Academic Program

Physics; Philosophy

Project Advisor 1

Clara Sousa-Silva

Project Advisor 2

Michelle Hoffman

Abstract/Artist's Statement

This senior project tackles how to deal with uncertainty in the search for life. Defining this uncertainty is tricky, and scientific efforts to do so are crucial. Such efforts include analyzing the data and biases of past, present, and future missions searching for exoplanets: planets outside our solar system. From there, the next step would be to infer what exoplanets have an atmosphere. This is a crucial, but not sufficient step, as having an atmosphere is a good sign of encountering life. However, finding an atmosphere is not an easy task, and this step will undeniably come with some amount of uncertainty. Hence, from the point of having an atmosphere, it would be essential to stop and analyze how much uncertainty comes from trying to find life at this stage, as finding an exoplanet with an atmosphere is a good step in finding life but not a sufficient one. The next step is to analyze the planet’s atmospheres for their chemical composition. I will do this by using data from my advisor, Clara Sousa-Silva, on the spectra for the presumed biosignatures (RASCALL). This, as expected, also comes with an uncertainty of its own. Data on the search for exoplanet atmospheres and the detection of biosignatures within them would help us measure and navigate the uncertainty in the search for life.

Having found data, although with a fair amount of uncertainty, which will be and has been meshed along all the way, we can furthermore analyze the philosophical implications of the search for life. Uncertainty in the search for life has many philosophical implications, which I will examine as I seek to answer the following questions: On an epistemic note, what is the weight of values and numbers in this project? Would the uncertainty attached to them make them less pure, or how can we balance the truth with uncertainty and make sure the data is reliable? I will also address a more pragmatic question dealing with uncertainty: how we should handle the risks of being wrong in our inferences, and how should we balance the risk of two kinds of errors, believing a false statement or rejecting a true one? In the context of astrobiology, this would correspond to believing we have found life when we have not, or missing life when it is present. Additionally, methodologically, is this approach, and the uncertainty it carries a good way of doing science, and what would an alternative look like?

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