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In 2016, Donald Trump inspired a "red wave" of voting that granted the Republicans control of the House and Senate for the first time since 2006. This seemingly should be a great time to be a Republican incumbent, especially in a Republican district. However, Scott Garrett, a long term conservative incumbent in New Jersey's fifth congressional district, fell to Josh Gottheimer, a Clinton-backed Democrat. So what happened? I conclude that Garrett fails to capture a new base that comes into his district after redistricting, loses his original base after failing to correctly achieve a Dual Constituency approach, and is hindered by bad public perception following regrettable comments.
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Blake, Christopher R., "How to Earn and Lose Your Constituency: A Case Study of New Jersey's Fifth Congressional District" (2019). Senior Projects Spring 2019. 222.
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